No Goats, No Glory

A disappearing keystone species puzzles scientists with their inexplicable drop in population.

Story and photo by Soren Cooley

December 14, 2024

Rugged mountains, sheer cliffs laden with snow, granite monoliths, give way to an iconic species of the North Cascade region of Washington State. The area is full of shaggy-haired, mountain climbing, cloven-hoofed animals with sharp black pointy horns and devilish eyes. In their habitat, one slip could mean certain death. Perfectly adapted to live comfortably in the most rugged and remote areas: It's the North Cascades mountain goat. 

The mountain goat is an important symbol to the Upper Skagit Tribe. Everything from the thick white wool and horns to the byproducts of the animal are utilized.

“They’ve played a really significant role in our history, our people sustained themselves on the goats since time immemorial,” Scott Schuyler, an elder of the Upper Skagit Tribe, said.

The tribe has occupied the Skagit River Valley upstream to the border between the United States and Canada. The Tribe once had an upriver village called Daʷáylib.This loosely translates to ‘goat wool gathering’. 

To this day, the Upper Skagit Tribe still attempts to hunt and use all parts of the animal as they have done for thousands of years. Schuyler is the last Upper Skagit member to record a harvested goat in 2018. 

The Upper Skagit Tribe is planning to soon open a museum to represent traditional practices of their people. The byproducts of Schuyler’s harvest in 2018, namely the goat’s wool, are being used to educate young members of the tribe on historic practices. 

Lately, mountain goat populations in Washington state have been dwindling. The species has been facing a multitude of challenges trying to carve out a living in the ever-changing environment. 

Mountain goats in a similar setting in Olympic National Park are not native and thriving. The populations of goats in this region are negatively impacting native alpine plant species. 

The National Park Service at Olympic National Park is planning to eradicate the mountain goats established in the park, but populations in the North Cascades are decreasing steadily and significantly from historic levels. 

How could it be that mountain goats could be thriving in the Olympic National Park but struggling in the North Cascades? Discovering the exact reason is a complex task.

Possible causes include the major habitat separation caused by Interstate 90, increased travel in back country settings since the coronavirus pandemic or climate change. 

“Historically there were about 10,000 mountain goats in the Cascades. Now there is estimated to be 2,000 to 3,000,” David Wallin, a professor at Western Washington University who researches mountain goats in Washington, said.

Wallin was involved in a relocation project that aimed to help struggling goat populations in the North Cascades with goats from the Olympic National Park. The purpose of this project was to increase the genetic diversity of mountain goats in the North Cascades. 

Genetic diversity, while important to a fragile population, is dwindling in the North Cascades.

“The low genetic diversity that we have right here has an influence on juvenile survival rates,” Wallin said. “That's troubling and quite surprising,” 

Interestingly enough, according to Wallin, nearly 98% of their habitat is intact. These high alpine areas, which are prime mountain goat habitats, are mostly protected wilderness areas.

However, many roads are going into the North Cascades, namely I-90. This could be a limiting factor for healthy mountain goats in the mountains.

This is not the only limiting factor that is contributing to a decline in mountain goat populations. A changing climate in Washington could be adding stress on the goats. 

“It turns out that if you have a really hot, dry summer, then the vegetation growth in the alpine zone is not so good,” Wallin said. “So, then animals go into the winter in poor condition,” 

Wildlife biologists Amanda Summers and Jennifer Sevigny working for the Stillaguamish Tribe, also cannot point to a smoking gun for the decline of mountain goat populations in the North Cascades region, specifically the Darrington area where their work is focused. 

Summers and Sevigny applied for a climate change grant which allowed them to survey historical and exploratory units to measure the mountain goat population.

One important aspect of this research is to see if the goat’s range has shifted and if the population size is actually dwindling. 

Over this past summer, the team surveyed roughly 37 units around the Darrington area in the North Cascades. Their findings were troubling.

 “The goats appeared to be gone. We didn’t find large groups of goats,” Sevigny said. “We didn’t find a lot of kids meaning that recruitment is down, productivity is down.”

Summers and Sevigny found smaller groups of goats and that they were at much higher elevations. Specifically, at or above 2,000 meters in elevation.

Hot, dry summers, followed by cool, wet winters are not a winning combination for mountain goats. Being pushed higher in elevation is not ideal for an already stressed-out species.

“We are thinking that the decline in the Darrington area is around 90% of original population. We are way, way down,” Sevigny said. 

This key point makes them believe that climate change could be part of the declining population.

“It was really interesting that the goats we saw this year, even though there were very few, they were all really, really high in elevation,” Sevigny said.

While climate change could be a factor in the decrease in populations, Sevigny, Wallin, and Schuyler all believe that it is a cocktail effect of different factors.

Whether it be predation, disease, disturbance, or even increased travel into the backcountry putting more pressure on the animals, one thing is for certain: these crucial creatures are disappearing from the North Cascades.